In a survey of experts at the Global Conference on Catastrophic Risks in Oxford, the Future of Humanity Institute estimated that the probability of complete human extinction by nuclear weapons was 1% in the century, with 1 billion deaths at 10% and one million deaths at 30%. The worst impact would occur in mid-latitudes, including barn areas such as the Midwest of the United States and Ukraine. Grain reserves would disappear in a year or two, and most countries would not be able to import food from other regions due to poor harvests. It's the most detailed look in history of how the aftermath of a nuclear war would affect food supplies, and researchers did not explicitly estimate how many people would die of hunger, but rather said that the ensuing famine would be worse than any other in documented history.
A gust of air can produce minimal rain if the fireball doesn't touch the ground, but a nuclear explosion that occurs at or near the Earth's surface can cause serious pollution from radioactive fallout. The Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) began developing nuclear fallout safety standards for civil nuclear reactors in the 1950s and 60s. The highest levels of outdoor rain radiation occur immediately after the arrival of rain and then decrease over time. The dangers of nuclear fallout are not limited to an increased risk of cancer and radiation sickness, but also include the presence of radionuclides in human organs from food.
Knowing the potential environmental consequences of a nuclear conflict can help legislators assess the threat. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a legally binding global ban on the testing of nuclear explosives. The consequences can also relate to nuclear accidents, even though a nuclear reactor does not explode like a nuclear weapon. But with many thousands of nuclear warheads still in existence, and with more nations becoming nuclear powers, some researchers have argued that nuclear war and the nuclear winter remain a threat.
A nuclear weapon detonated in the air, called an air blast, produces less rain than a comparable explosion near the ground. One example is the 1962 Federal Radiation Council report, entitled “Health Implications of Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Testing through 1961”. Although there is still very little rainfall in the environment, it is important to remember that the consequences can be very dangerous. Based on these estimates, the consequences of more than 500 megatons of nuclear tests until 1970 will produce between 2 and 25 cases of genetic diseases per million live births in the next generation. This article provides an overview of what could happen if a nuclear fallout ever occurred.
It looks at how it would affect food supplies, what safety standards have been developed to protect against it, and what potential environmental consequences could arise from it. It also examines how many cases of genetic diseases could result from past tests.
